Gordon Campbell on trade, Trump and Steve Bannon   18 Nov 2016

Column - Gordon Campbell

Gordon Campbell on trade, Trump and Steve Bannon

First published on Werewolf

As APEC leaders get together this weekend in Peru, they could be forgiven for looking back nostalgically at Barack Obama’s time in office and wondering whether the world will ever be quite so safe and prosperous again. Because if anyone can further bankrupt America and send the global economy into a tailspin it would be serial bankruptee come President-elect Donald Trump – and the outlook really isn’t all that good. Promising huge increases in military and infrastructural spending at the same time as you're also promising to cut income and corporate taxes looks like Reagan-era looniness is back in fashion.

You know the drill. Time and again – see Reagan in the 1980s, the state of Kansas today – the ideologues of the right cut regulations and deliver tax cuts in the simple minded faith that this will unleash a wave of entrepreneurialism that will lift everyone’s boat. It doesn’t work. Reagan failed, and that failure sunk his immediate successor, the hapless George H. W. “Read My Lips, No New Taxes” Bush who had to break his promise on taxes in order to protect the revenue. Bill Clinton raised taxes and the US prospered. Dubya cut them again, ruinously. Barack Obama restored some sobriety after the GFC, just in time for Trump to come along and promise another foolhardy spending spree and tax cutting raid on the revenue. There are very good reasons to be afraid of the consequences. In effect, US voters have just put the levers of the world economy into the hands of a failed businessman who has repeatedly shown a cavalier attitude towards the care of other peoples money.

So there are reasons to be nervous in Peru. With understandable trepidation, the APEC leaders will be waiting to see how much of President-elect Donald Trump’s inflammatory campaign rhetoric will be enacted once he’s in the White House. For New Zealand, trade policy will be a litmus test. Over recent weeks, the Key government has continued to pass legislation to enact the Trans Pacific Partnership deal that Trump has vowed to scuttle. Arguably, we would be better off shifting our focus to the rival regional trade deal being promoted by China and India.

Currently, trade policy is not a top priority for the Trump transition team. Cutting taxes, and scrapping Obamacare are their main concerns… and gee, its proving to be tougher than they thought. How do you keep the bits of Obamacare that the voters like, while scrapping the bits that are ideologically impure? Answer: you can’t. In this respect, the Trump people are exactly like Boris Johnson – who is still discovering the hard way that you can’t actually keep all the good bits of being in the EU, after you’ve dumped the immigration-related ‘free movement of people’ bits that you didn’t like. It's a cruel world like that. People don’t give you everything you want.

Trade policy matters to us, though. We’re a trading nation. Ultimately, the Key government will have to make a call (and plan accordingly) on whether Trump seriously aims to scrap the TPP or alternatively, wants to change it in a way that serves US corporate interests more comprehensively.

If Trump does choose to “fix” the TPP, what extra concessions would New Zealand be prepared to make? All year, Republican Party chieftains have railed against the TPP’s claimed ‘failures.’ Supposedly, the current agreement (a) fails to crack down on alleged currency manipulation by China (b) allows member nations to regulate tobacco marketing for health reasons and (c) fails to provide US drug companies with a long enough term of market dominance for their new medicines. All grievous sins, in Republican eyes.

Should New Zealand agree to meekly comply with such changes, in order to retain our modest gains on dairy access? Hell no. Conceding on medicine patents could cost us millions. Targeting China over its currency would also be fraught with risk. Arguably, Trump’s criticisms are largely out of date. He’s railing against a historical problem that no longer exists. Yes, between 2004-2011, China certainly did keep its currency artificially low to boost its exports, but not so much recently. If anything, China’s leaders have been frantically pumping money into the country’s currency, to keep it from falling even faster.

There’s a wider issue. To indulge Trump, can we afford to endorse a trade war that he may want to pick with China, which is our biggest export destination? Australia and New Zealand both rely heavily on demand from China to keep their economies afloat. Enough concerns already exist about China’s debt problems and mortgage bubble without Trump throwing another spanner into the works. For that reason, New Zealand should be telling Trump point blank that any TPP “fix” that targets China’s currency is not something that we could support.

There is another option. The major trade deal currently on the table is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Unlike the TPP, this pact includes China and India. It has real flaws: the investor-state dispute resolution mechanisms are just as dangerous and obsolete. But at least the RCEP is not saddled with the copyright issues and drug patent problems that have plagued the TPP – and which always had more to do with enshrining market dominance for US corporates than with fostering genuine free trade. However, the RCEP doesn’t include the US, and New Zealand would be left without a trade pact with the Americans. Hey, maybe we could apply to join NAFTA. That’s up for grabs again, under Trump.

Trade, as the old saying goes, is war by other means. Both the TPP and RCEP are platforms for advancing strategic influence in the region as much as they are about fostering free trade. Question being: does our future lie with our traditional allies, or with Asia? For a few more months, we can still enjoy the luxury of keeping both of those trade balls in the air – but if Trump follows through on his rhetoric, choosing sides is likely to become a necessity. Which way will we jump?

America, Still Not So Great

While we’re mulling over our choices on trade…here’s a scary quote on Defence from someone tipped for one of the top national security adviser posts in the new Trump administration:

Widely considered to have made the short list of candidates for top national security jobs in Donald Trump’s administration, Rep. Duncan Hunter of Alpine pledged Friday to make the Pentagon great again after eight years of Democratic control.

“I’m excited about a warrior culture, a warrior mentality put back into the (military), as opposed to a corporate culture ruled over by the bureaucrats and lawyers,” Hunter, a Republican member of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a phone interview.

“The warrior culture is going to get infused into (the department) again. It’s probably going to take a while because a lot of guys who had that mentality are no longer there, but maybe people’s true colors can show now, a little bit,” he added.

Once were Pentagon warriors, will be so again. This next bit is both creepy and scary. Steve Bannon, the guy who turned Breibart News into a cesspit of US journalism has just been appointed as Trump’s chief strategist and senior counsellor. At the Foreign Policy site, David Rothkopf has compiled a useful list of some of the headlines that Breibart ran under Bannon’s tutelage. For example:

“Bill Kristol: Republican Spoiler, Renegade Jew,” “There’s No Hiring Bias Against Women in Tech, They Just Suck at Interviews,” “Gabby Giffords: The Gun Control Movement’s Human Shield,” “Birth Control Makes Women Unattractive and Crazy,” “Roger Stone: Huma Abedin ‘Most Likely a Saudi Spy’ With ‘Deep, Inarguable Connections’ to ‘Global Terrorist Entity,’ “The Solution to Online ‘Harassment’ Is Simple: Women Should Just Log Off” “Data: Young Muslims in the West are a Ticking Time Bomb, Increasingly Sympathizing with Radicals, Terror” etc etc

And of course Bannon’s classic effort: “Would You Rather Your Child Had Feminism or Cancer…?” The misogyny in those headlines – not to mention the xenophobia and the anti-Semitism – has been a constant theme with this guy. Newsweek has also reported on a raft of other incidents involving Bannon’s hostility to women:

During a 2011 radio interview, he said that progressives vilify prominent women in the conservative movement because they are not “a bunch of dykes that came from the Seven Sisters schools…..”Bannon also fired a disabled employee on maternity leave, according to a lawsuit obtained by The New York Post. “Julia Panely-Pacetti, a new mother who suffers from multiple sclerosis, was terminated by defendants from her position as head of public relations and corporate marketing because of her sex and her disability,” states the lawsuit, filed in Manhattan federal court in September 2005. Panely-Pacetti was… reporting directly to Bannon. The claim was settled in 2006.

There are also allegations of sexual harassment and threats of violence :

…During the 1990s, Bannon was accused of sexual harassment. The suit related to Bannon's time as director of Biosphere 2, a research facility in Oracle, Arizona. The company’s former director, Margret Augustine, claimed that…. Bannon and a fellow banker, Martin Bowen, had made “sexually suggestive remarks and lewd remarks toward her, and had disparaged female employees of the research facility,” Buzzfeed News reported.

Augustine claimed Bannon once said that the problem with an employee was that she “was a woman in a man’s job” and he often openly discussed women’s “boobs,” calling them “titties.” At a company party, Augustine claims she danced with Bannon and he “held my wrist tightly and told me that once I’d done it with him, I’d never want to do it with anyone else.” In recordings obtained by BuzzFeed News, Bannon referred to a female colleague as a “bimbo” and vowed to take comments the woman made about the safety of the research facility they worked at and “ram it down her fucking throat.”

Clearly, once Steve Bannon enables Donald Trump to make America great again, women will be put back in their place.

Decisions, Decisions.

TPP or RCEP… it isn’t easy being John Key on the trade policy options. He’d like a threesome with China – heck, a full blown 12 member TPP pool party would be great - but Donald is just so jealous. It looks like its gonna have to be China or the US, sometime soon. Here’s a song about how hard it is for New Zealand to come to a decision – TPP or RCEP? – on where its trade interests and inclinations would be better served:

Add a comment

News

Hilary Timmins' Award-Winning UK Documentary Series To Inspire NZ Students

29 Jun 2020 Education
Dream Catchers, produced and directed by Hilary Timmins, celebrates the success stories of more than thirty inspirational New... more

New Zealand reaffirms support for Flight MH17 judicial process

7 Mar 2020 News By Rt HON WINSTON PETERS
Ahead of the start of the criminal trial in the Netherlands on 9 March, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has reaffirmed the need to... more

Business

NZ Government's Economic package to fight COVID-19

17 Mar 2020 Business News By RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
The Coalition Government has launched the most significant peace-time economic plan in modern New Zealand history to cushion the... more

NZ Government announces aviation relief package

19 Mar 2020 Business News By Hon Phil Twyford
Transport Minister Phil Twyford today outlined the first tranche of the $600 million aviation sector relief package announced earlier... more

Living

Diversity was Key at New Zealand Trade Tasting in London

6 Jun 2022 Food & Wine
New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Trade Tasting was recently held in London, on Wednesday 4 May, in Lindley Hall. It was the first... more

Kiwi author stuns Behind the Butterfly Gate

12 Jan 2022 Arts By Charlotte Everett
Hidden behind the Butterfly Gate is where the secret has been kept for 76 years...  New Zealand writer Merryn Corcoran’s... more

Property

Fairer rules for tenants and landlords

17 Nov 2019 Property By Minister Kris Faafoi
17 NOVEMBER 2019 The Government has delivered on its promise to the over one million New Zealanders who now rent to make it fairer... more

New Zealand Government will not implement a Capital Gains Tax

17 Apr 2019 Property By RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
The Coalition Government will not proceed with the Tax Working Group’s recommendation for a capital gains tax, Jacinda Ardern... more

Migration

Boosting border security with electronic travel authority – now over 500,000 issued

19 Nov 2019 Migration By Hon Iain Lees-Galloway
19 NOVEMBER 2019 We’ve improved border security with the NZeTA, New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority, which helps us to... more

Christchurch reinstated as refugee settlement location

18 Aug 2018 Migration
18 AUGUST 2018 HON IAIN LEES-GALLOWAY The announcement that Christchurch can once again be a settlement location for refugees... more

Travel

Gallipoli Anzac Day services cancelled

19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism By RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
The New Zealand and Australian Governments have announced this year’s joint Anzac Day services at Gallipoli will be cancelled... more

New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas

19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism
New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas more

Sport

The Skipper's Diary: Sir Richard Hadlee honouring his father and NZ's Forty-Niners

27 Oct 2019 Cricket By Charlotte Everett
NZNewsUK London Editor Charlotte Everett spoke to Sir Richard Hadlee about why he’s chosen to publish his father’s... more

PREVIEW: All Blacks v England semi-final

26 Oct 2019 Rugby
The two most convincing quarterfinals winners are set to square off in a semifinal showdown for the ages when the All Blacks meet old... more

Columns

Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade

11 Nov 2016 Opinion
Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade First published on Werewolf The ghastly likes of Marine Le Pen in France and Geert ... more

Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome

10 Nov 2016 Opinion
Column - Gordon Campbell   Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome Well um.. on the bright side, there (probably)... more

Kiwi Success

Congratulations to Loder Cup winner

26 Sep 2018 People By Hon Eugenie Sage
25 SEPTEMBER 2018 The Loder Cup, one of New Zealand’s oldest conservation awards, has been awarded to Robert McGowan for 2018... more

Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO

16 Aug 2018 Appointments
16 AUGUST 2018Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO HON JENNY SALESA Associate Education Minister Jenny Salesa is... more

Recruitment

Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers

14 Aug 2018 Recruitment By RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers RT HON JACINDA ARDERN HON CHRIS HIPKINS Prime Minister The... more

Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers

22 Aug 2018 Recruitment By RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers RT HON JACINDA ARDERN HON CHRIS HIPKINS Prime Minister The... more