Job ads fell 2.7% in January; jobless rate unlikely to fall   16 Feb 2012

ANZ Bank said its survey showed job advertisements fell 2.7 percent in January on top of a 2.6 percent drop in December, suggesting little improvement in the unemployment rate in the next few months.

The seasonally adjusted series has fallen by 2.5 percent or more in four of the last five months, the bank said.

The survey measures both newspaper advertisements and internet job listings.
On a regional basis, ads in Wellington were strongest, rising 5.6 percent, Christchurch was flat and Auckland ads fell 4.2 percent.

“Our unemployment direction index, which aggregates a range of monthly labour market indicators, including job ads, is still on the right side of the ledger (below zero) but is rising, suggesting improvements in the labour market are running out of steam,” ANZ said.

That composite measure tracks changes in the unemployment rate closely with a six-month lead, the bank said.

While the unemployment rate may well fall slightly in the three months ending March from 6.3 percent at the end of 2011, “but if so, it will bounce back upward the following quarter, back to around current levels.”

(BusinessDesk)

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