National Property Market Analysis 15 Oct 2014
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Auckland and Christchurch have recovered from the winter lull that is traditional in real estate, with written sales up and average prices continuing to increase.
Elsewhere in the country the recovery is not so obvious, with the provinces still struggling under the Reserve Bank’s LVR restrictions.
The Reserve Bank signalled it may look to remove LVR restrictions at the end of the year and, as far as provincial New Zealand goes, this would be a much needed respite for the struggling real estate market. In Christchurch and Auckland LVR restrictions have done little to dampen demand for housing and the resulting price increases.
Harcourts CEO Hayden Duncan says it is simple demand and supply. In Christchurch and Auckland demand is outstripping supply and prices will continue to rise until this is no longer the case. As the cities’ populations show no sign of slowing down, the only answer is rapid and quality construction of new homes.
| NORTHERN | Sep 2014 | Sep 2013 | Change |
| Total New Listings | 671 | 711 | -5.6% |
| New Auction / Tender Listings | 291 | 339 | -14.2% |
| Property on Hand | 1771 | 1414 | 25.2% |
| Written Sales | 576 | 558 | 3.2% |
| Average Price | $683,101 | $617,444 | 11% |
| Written sales are up 3.2% on the same time last year, have jumped by 22% on August’s figures and are at their highest level since March, showing the winter lull is now well and truly over. Sales consultants are reporting an increase in the number of appraisals being carried out, and we will expect to see an increase in new listings next month. The average sales price in Auckland and Northland sits at $683,101, which is up 11% on the same time last year and a 4% increase on August’s average of $655,138. This shows prices are continuing to trend upwards. |
| CENTRAL | Sep 2014 | Sep 2013 | Change |
| Total New Listings | 439.5 | 418 | 5.1% |
| New Auction/Tender Listings | 85 | 68 | 25% |
| Property on Hand | 2099 | 2117 | -0.9% |
| Written Sales | 299 | 302 | -0.9% |
| Average Price | $337,639 | $314,257 | 7% |
| Sales remain at similar levels to the same time last year, and there has not been a large jump on August’s figures. However, the Central region remains the more buoyant of New Zealand’s provinces, with its close proximity to Auckland meaning it is attractive to investors, and even commuters choosing the area for affordability and lifestyle. |
| WELLINGTON | Sep 2014 | Sep 2013 | Change |
| Total New Listings | 396 | 376 | 5.3% |
| New Auction/Tender Listings | 71 | 67 | 6% |
| Property on Hand | 1452 | 1509 | -3.8% |
| Written Sales | 262 | 277 | -5.4% |
| Average Price | $366,153 | $358,485 | 2% |
| Sales are down on the same time last year, however there has been an improvement on August’s numbers. The average prices being achieved remain static. On the positive side, there has been an increase in new listings, which may indicate an optimism following the general election. |
| CHRISTCHURCH METRO | Sep 2014 | Sep 2013 | Change |
| Total New Listings | 492 | 465 | 5.1% |
| New Auction/Tender Listings | 184 | 174 | 5.7% |
| Property on Hand | 1927 | 1466 | 31.4% |
| Written Sales | 404 | 391 | 3.3% |
| Average Price | $496,161 | $426,373 | 16% |
| Sales are up by 3.3% on the same time last year, and have jumped by 21% on August’s figures, showing the slowdown that occurs during winter is over. The average sales price is up 16% on the same time last year and now sits at $496, 161. Auctions account for almost 40% of new listings, with the auction rooms tending to be full each week and a high level of success before or on auction day. Stock levels are also up significantly, with newly constructed houses starting to come onto the market. Greater Christchurch’s residential consent activity and construction levels are both on par with Auckland’s. |
| SOUTH ISLAND PROVINCIAL | Sep 2014 | Sep 2013 | Change |
| Total New Listings | 286 | 377 | -24.1% |
| New Auction/Tender Listings | 28 | 26 | 7.7% |
| Property on Hand | 1599 | 1743 | -8.3% |
| Written Sales | 194 | 217 | -10.6% |
| Average Price | $298,702 | $303,683 | -2% |
| The region hardest hit by LVR restrictions, South Island Provincial is struggling under the pressure that has been placed on first home buyers. There has been no post winter recovery, with sales at the same level as they were in August and down slightly on July and June. |
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