Gordon Campbell on Britain’s pleas for mercy 29 Jun 2016
Related articles
- Brownlee Leads Aviation Mission To Shanghai News
- NZ looking at all avenues on whaling issue News
- Sludge Report #192: The Naked Budget Columns
- Licensing To Cut Out Cowboy Advisers Migration
- Gordon Campbell: RWC fever, Obama's Supreme Court Columns
- Government Widens Drought Assistance News
- Young People Take Over Parliament News
- Actions For Young Driver Safety Get Green Light News
Gordon Campbell on Britain’s pleas for mercy
First published on Werewolf.co.nzSo… Boris Johnson is promising that he won’t be holding a snap general election, if he’s chosen as the next UK Conservative Party leader.
Reportedly, he is even making that promise a feature of his leadership campaign, since a vote for Boris would therefore mean (wink wink) that his colleagues wouldn’t have to risk their jobs and face the wrath of the British public until 2020. Incredible. So… the same Boris Johnson who railed so eloquently against Britain’s decisions being made by the unelected bureaucrats of Brussels, now plans to rule Britain himself unelected, for the next five years – on the back of a Conservative Party mandate that was actually won by his referendum opponent, the “Remain” leader, David Cameron. Regardless, Home Secretary Theresa May will be a formidable opponent for Johnson. The results of the leadership vote – likely to be a May vs Johnson showdown- will be announced on 9 September.
Given the mood of the British public, the Conservatives seem equally reluctant to (a) hold a snap election over Brexit and (b) trigger the article 50 exit clause from the European Union. A queasy stalemate now exists. On Brexit, the Europeans clearly want Britain to hurry up and get on with it, but no British politician (apart from Nigel Farage) seems willing to step up and be held responsible for pulling the trigger. Some people have taken hope from this stalemate, and read it as a sign that maybe an article 50 exit might never happen.
Faint hope.
Meanwhile, over on the other side of the fence, Angela Eagle seems to have emerged as the initial ‘soft left’ compromise candidate to succeed Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. (In passing, Eagle’s rise underlines just how prominent women currently are across the West’s political landscape: Angela Merkel, Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren etc. etc.) Within the parliamentary wing of the British Labour Party though, the man who triggered the coup against Corbyn (Hilary Benn) has said that he won’t stand for the leadership. Corbyn may not, either. By some legal arguments, Corbyn could well be required to collect 50 nominations from his colleagues to be able to stand for re-election – as every one of his challengers would also need to do. Given that Corbyn has just lost a vote of no confidence among his colleagues by a whopping 170 to 40, it is by no means certain that right now, he could clear the nominations hurdle. In which case, Corbyn’s popularity among the party at large would be irrelevant.
Looking beyond the current stalemate… what exactly will the next British PM (whoever it is) be pursuing as a credible goal in the negotiations with the EU? Yesterday, Angela Merkel made it clear Britain cannot expect to shirk its duties as a full EU member, but still retain all of its privileges. During the referendum campaign, the “Leave” proponents seemed to be advocating some kind of “Norway” or “Switzerland” status whereby market access continued outside full EU membership.
Those two countries though, are Shengen visa countries, allowing free movement. In which case, as the Australian economist John Quggin has pointed out, any Brexiteers now hoping to pursue a Norway/Switzerland market access model for Britain will actually have achieved the removal of the existing controls on immigration, rather than the imposition of new limits. Cameron, for his part, is pleading for market access to Europe, alongside greater powers to curb immigration.
Of course he is, poor little chap. That’s one example of how impossible it will be for Britain to cherry pick its new access conditions to Europe. For obvious reasons, Britain is likely to be punished, not rewarded. Whatever Britain’s negotiation plan may be – and there is no sign as yet that such a plan exists – those negotiations will be nasty and could involve up to ten years of further economic uncertainty for Britain, before completion. Oh, and if Britons expected to escape with a better deal from the EU’s current rules on fishing stocks – a big promise of the ‘Leave’ campaign – that won’t be happening now, either.
British fishermen have been warned that, despite the promises made by the leave campaign, they cannot expect to be granted greater catches after the UK leaves the European Union, and they may face increased economic turmoil.
Fishermen will have to remain within their current catch quotas while the UK is still a member, and even if new arrangements are negotiated after a Brexit, they will not necessarily be more generous, fisheries chiefs and campaigners have warned.
In fact, the Independent has just published a useful updated list on the major promises/lies of the “Leave” campaign, and the cold reality.
But whenever there’s carnage, the vultures will gather. Following sharp declines, stock markets rallied yesterday as investors came in, looking for bargains. This bounce may not mean the Brexit-induced bottom has been reached, investors were warned.
Spain Votes For Austerity
As this column pointed out a couple of days ago, the Brexit vote is likely to give the policies of economic austerity a new lease of life, just as those policies were in retreat across Europe. For proof, one need look no further than the results of the Spanish election, held just two days after the Brexit vote.
Though the polls had been predicting major gains for the radical left, the ruling conservative PP party pulled out all the stops in the 48 hours between the Brexit result and election day. As you might expect, the PP leadership warned against the risks involved in embracing change during such volatile times. Result: the predicted vote for the new party of the left (Unidos Podemos) and the new party of the right (Ciudadanos) both collapsed. Voters sought refuge in the corrupt old party of the right (PP) and the equally lacklustre old left wing party (PSOE).
In all likelihood, the PP will now be able to cobble together a governing coalition with Ciudadanos and a conservative group of small regional parties. On current counts, this may still come up one seat short of the 176 needed to rule the 350 seat assembly, which will probably mean that PSOE will abstain, and allow the PP to rule as a minority government. Or even worse, PSOE may join PP and Ciudadanos in a “grand coalition”. The big loser of the election has been Unidos Podemos, which was offering the only real alternative to the neo-liberal/austerity consensus. Thank Brexit for that outcome.
Tyler, Again
Wordlessly, guitarist William Tyler conveys a good deal of the current mood of social dislocation. Nice to note Nick Bollinger’s rave RNZ review this week of Tyler’s new album Modern Country . Incidentally, that title has less to do with rhinestone suits than with various forms of malaise. I’ve been regularly pushing Tyler’s merits in this column for 18 months or more – but it seems like a good morning to showcase him once again. According to Tyler, he wrote “Highway Anxiety” while driving himself for the hundreds of miles between his gigs – and the time alone on the road not only enabled him to see what was happening to rural communities, but set him to worrying about the future of his country. This is anxiously beautiful music, for anxious times.
News
Hilary Timmins' Award-Winning UK Documentary Series To Inspire NZ Students
29 Jun 2020 Education
Dream Catchers, produced and directed by Hilary Timmins, celebrates the success stories of more than thirty inspirational New... more
New Zealand reaffirms support for Flight MH17 judicial process
7 Mar 2020 News
Ahead of the start of the criminal trial in the Netherlands on 9 March, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has reaffirmed the need to... more
Business
NZ Government's Economic package to fight COVID-19
17 Mar 2020 Business News
The Coalition Government has launched the most significant peace-time economic plan in modern New Zealand history to cushion the... more
NZ Government announces aviation relief package
19 Mar 2020 Business News
Transport Minister Phil Twyford today outlined the first tranche of the $600 million aviation sector relief package announced earlier... more
Living
Diversity was Key at New Zealand Trade Tasting in London
6 Jun 2022 Food & Wine
New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Trade Tasting was recently held in London, on Wednesday 4 May, in Lindley Hall.
It was the first... more
Kiwi author stuns Behind the Butterfly Gate
12 Jan 2022 Arts
Hidden behind the Butterfly Gate is where the secret has been kept for 76 years...
New Zealand writer Merryn Corcoran’s... more
Property
Fairer rules for tenants and landlords
17 Nov 2019 Property
17 NOVEMBER 2019
The Government has delivered on its promise to the over one million New Zealanders who now rent to make it fairer... more
New Zealand Government will not implement a Capital Gains Tax
17 Apr 2019 Property
The Coalition Government will not proceed with the Tax Working Group’s recommendation for a capital gains tax, Jacinda Ardern... more
Migration
Boosting border security with electronic travel authority – now over 500,000 issued
19 Nov 2019 Migration
19 NOVEMBER 2019
We’ve improved border security with the NZeTA, New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority, which helps us to... more
Christchurch reinstated as refugee settlement location
18 Aug 2018 Migration
18 AUGUST 2018
HON IAIN LEES-GALLOWAY
The announcement that Christchurch can once again be a settlement location for refugees... more
Travel
Gallipoli Anzac Day services cancelled
19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism
The New Zealand and Australian Governments have announced this year’s joint Anzac Day services at Gallipoli will be cancelled... more
New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas
19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism
New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas
more
Sport
The Skipper's Diary: Sir Richard Hadlee honouring his father and NZ's Forty-Niners
27 Oct 2019 Cricket
NZNewsUK London Editor Charlotte Everett spoke to Sir Richard Hadlee about why he’s chosen to publish his father’s... more
PREVIEW: All Blacks v England semi-final
26 Oct 2019 Rugby
The two most convincing quarterfinals winners are set to square off in a semifinal showdown for the ages when the All Blacks meet old... more
Columns
Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade
11 Nov 2016 Opinion
Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade
First published on Werewolf
The ghastly likes of Marine Le Pen in France and Geert ... more
Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome
10 Nov 2016 Opinion
Column - Gordon Campbell
Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome
Well um.. on the bright side, there (probably)... more
Kiwi Success
Congratulations to Loder Cup winner
26 Sep 2018 People
25 SEPTEMBER 2018
The Loder Cup, one of New Zealand’s oldest conservation awards, has been awarded to Robert McGowan for 2018... more
Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO
16 Aug 2018 Appointments
16 AUGUST 2018Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO
HON JENNY SALESA
Associate Education Minister Jenny Salesa is... more
Recruitment
Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
14 Aug 2018 Recruitment
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
HON CHRIS HIPKINS
Prime Minister
The... more
Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
22 Aug 2018 Recruitment
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
HON CHRIS HIPKINS
Prime Minister
The... more