Daily Election Update #12: NZ First to hold balance of power   19 Sep 2014

iPredict

IPREDICT LTD

2014 NEW ZEALAND ELECTION

DAILY UPDATE #12

www.ipredict.co.nz

www.electionresults.co.nz

Winston Peters’ NZ First Party will hold the balance of power after tomorrow’s election, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Mr Peters is then expected to back a National-led government. Te Tai Tokerau is now highly marginal between Mana’s Hone Harawira and Labour’s Kelvin Davis. If Mr Davis wins the seat, NZ First and the Maori Party will together hold the balance of power. Note, trading in iPredict’s New Zealand election and political stocks will be suspended at 11.59 pm tonight and reopen at 7.00 pm tomorrow.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 83.7% (up from 81.0% yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 85.8% probability (up from 83.2% yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 44.0% (down from 44.3% yesterday)

o Labour: 25.4% (down from 25.6%)

o Green: 14.9% (up from 13.6%)

o NZ First: 6.8% (up from 6.3%)

o Conservatives: 3.9% (down from 5.2%)

o Internet-Mana: 2.2% (up from 2.1%)

o ACT: 1.3% (down from 1.5%)

o Maori Party: 0.8% (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 0.5% (up from 0.4%)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (down from 0.2%)

• Three small parties appear likely to win at least one electorate seat: Maori Party (88.1%, down from 88.8% yesterday), ACT (85.0%, down from 85.8%) and UnitedFuture (79.1%, down from 81.3%).

• The data on Mana is somewhat conflicting. The market is pricing just a 50% probability it will win one or more seats (down from 69.0% yesterday). However, it also prices a 53% probability Mana will win Te Tai Tokerau (down from 60% yesterday) and a 7% probability it will win Waiariki (down from 12% yesterday)

• Marginal seats:

o Te Tai Tokerau (53% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, down from 60% yesterday)

o Port Hills (57% for Labour’s Ruth Dyson, up from 48%)

o Te Atatu (62% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, down from 75%)

o Waimakariri (62% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, down from 73%)

o Christchurch Central (69% for Labour’s Tony Milne, down from 70%)

o Tamaki Makaurau (70% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, up from 67%)

o Te Tai Hauauru (70% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, down from 73%)

o Hutt South (75% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, down from 79%)

o Ohariu (77% for UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne, down from 82%)

• If Mana wins Te Tai Tokerau, Parliament is expected to be:

o National: 55 seats (up from 53 yesterday)

o Labour: 32 seats (up from 31)

o Green: 18 seats (up from 16)

o NZ First: 8 seats (steady)

o Internet-Mana: 3 seats (steady)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

o Conservatives: 0 seats (down from 6)

• The current National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party government would have only 59 seats and could not form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana would have 61 seats and could form a government

• National/NZ First would have 63 seats and could form a government

• NZ First would hold the balance of power

• If Labour wins Te Tai Tokerau, Parliament is expected to be:

o National: 56 seats

o Labour: 32 seats

o Green: 19 seats

o NZ First: 9 seats

o ACT: 2 seats

o Maori Party: 1 seat

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat

• The current National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party government would have only 60 seats and could not form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First would have only 60 seats and could not form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Maori Party would have 61 seats and could form a government

• National/NZ First would have 65 seats and could form a government

• NZ First and the Maori Party would together hold the balance of power

• If NZ First does hold the balance of power, it is expected to back National (64% probability, down from 72% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (6.4%, down from 9.2%)

• David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (55% probability, steady compared with yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (65%, steady)

• John Key expected to depart as National leader by the end of 2016 (67% probability, down from 68% yesterday). If Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2016, the probability of him doing so is 55% (up from 51%)

• Steven Joyce is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, with 37% probability (up from 35% yesterday) followed by Paula Bennett on 25% (down from 27% yesterday)

• As forecast by iPredict, GDP growth (June quarter) was 0.7% when announced by Statistics NZ yesterday. GDP growth in the September quarter is expected to be 0.9% of GDP

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady compared with yesterday)

• Current account deficit (September quarter) to be 3.5% of GDP (steady)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.3% (down from 1.4%)

• No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (95% probability, steady)

• Fiscal surplus for 2014/15 expected to be 0.28% of GDP (up from 0.21% of GDP)

• 6% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (down from 15% yesterday)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 3.12 pm.

ENDS

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