iPredict Election Update 17 Sep 2014
iPredictiPredict Ltd
2014 New
Zealand Election
Daily Update
#10
Wednesday 17 September
2014
FOR IMMEDIATE
RELEASE
John Key’s National
Party now has an 88% probability of leading the next government, most
probably with the support of NZ First, according to the
combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New
Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. There is a 75%
probability NZ First will back National if it holds the balance of power, the Conservative Party
is close to the 5% threshold, the Maori
Party is closing in on Labour in Te Tai Hauauru and is expected to win Waiariki, and the Mana Party’s
position has weakened in Te Tai Tokerau. Port Hills is now 50:50 between National
and Labour.
However, for the first
time, Mr Key is expected to step down as leader of the National
Party by the end of 2015. Steven Joyce is favoured to succeed him, with Paula
Bennett also in a strong position. David Cunliffe’s
longevity as leader of the Labour Party has also
worsened, with a 59% chance he will leave the job by the end
of this year, to be succeeded by Grant
Robertson.
iPredict accurately
forecast today’s announcement by Statistics NZ of a
current account deficit for the June quarter of 2.5% of GDP. It is
forecasting Statistics NZ will tomorrow announce GDP growth
in the June quarter of 0.7% of
GDP.
Detailed Information:
•
Expected turnout 78.6% (steady compared with
yesterday)
• National expected to lead next government with 87.8% probability (up from 85.0%
yesterday)
• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to
100%):
o National: 44.1% (down from 45.2%
yesterday)
o Labour: 25.1% (up from 24.8%)
o
Green: 13.7% (up from 13.6%)
o NZ First: 6.2% (up
from 5.9%)
o Conservatives: 4.8% (up from
4.2%)
o Internet-Mana: 2.7% (down from
3.0%)
o ACT: 1.8% (steady)
o Maori Party:
0.8% (steady)
o UnitedFuture: 0.5% (up from
0.4%)
o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)
o Civilian
Party: 0.2% (up from 0.1%)
• Four small
parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: ACT (89.4%, up from 88.8% yesterday), Maori Party (88.1%, up from 80.2%), UnitedFuture (83.2%, steady), and Mana (65.0%, down from 71.1%)
o Port Hills (50:50 between
National’s Nuk Korako and Labour’s Ruth Dyson, compared
with 53% for Korako yesterday)
o Te Tai Hauauru (60%
for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, down from 79%)
o
Palmerston North (60% for Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway, up
from 55%)
o Waimakariri (62% for National’s
Matthew’s Doocey, steady)
o Hutt South (69% for
Labour’s Trevor Mallard, down from 70%)
o Te Atatu
(69% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, down from 71%)
o
Te Tai Tokerau (71% for Mana’s Hone Harawira,
steady)
o Tamaki Makaurau (75% for Labour’s Peeni
Henare, down from 80%)
o Christchurch Central (77%
for Labour’s Tony Milne, up from 75%)
o Ohariu
(79% for UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne, down from
86%)
• Parliament expected to be:
o
National: 56 seats (down from 57 yesterday)
o
Labour: 32 seats (up from 31)
o Green: 17 seats
(steady)
o NZ First: 8 seats (up from 7)
o
Internet-Mana: 3 seats (down from 4)
o ACT: 2
seats (steady)
o Maori Party: 1 seat
(steady)
o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)
•
National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party would have only 60
seats and could not form a government
•
Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana/Maori Party would have
61 seats and could form a government
•
National/NZ First would have 64 seats and could form a
government
• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (75%
probability, up from 64% yesterday) or sit on cross benches
(2.8%, up from 0.8%)
• David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by
end of year (59% probability, up from 53% yesterday) and be
replaced by Grant Robertson (65%, steady)
• John Key expected to depart as National leader
by the end of 2015 (65% probability, steady compared with
yesterday). If Labour’s probability of forming the next
government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of
departing as National leader by the end of 2015, the
probability of him doing so is 53%, the first time the
market has forecast he will depart as leader by the end of
next year
• Steven Joyce is favourite to
become National Party leader if a vacancy
arises, with 34% probability (steady compared
with yesterday) followed by Paula Bennett on 29% (up from
27% yesterday)
• As accurately forecast by
iPredict, the current account deficit (June quarter) was 2.5% of GDP when announced by Statistics NZ today. iPredict forecasts that the
current account deficit (September quarter) will be 3.5% of GDP
•
GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced by
Statistics
NZ
tomorrow (steady compared with yesterday)
•
Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)
• Annual
inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)
•
No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (95% probability, steady)
•
Fiscal surplus for 2014/15 expected to be 0.23% of GDP
(steady)
• 15% probability that evidence will
emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name
the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (down
from 20% yesterday)
Notes: iPredict
Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details
on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The
daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro
bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time
each day. Today’s was taken at 10.20 am. Trading on
iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and
re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20
September
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