Key concedes new budget forecasts could be a 'small' deficit 24 Nov 2014
Pattrick Smellie
Related articles
- NZ consumers grow more upbeat, may resume spending Business
- Knowles quits as CEO of KiwiBank Business
- NZ migration bolstered by British invasion Migration
- NZ manufacturing activity reaches highest since 04 Business
- NZ dollar hits 22-month high vs euro Business
- OceanaGold finds new gold deposits at Fraser mine Business
- Transpower gets go-ahead for $170m SI upgrade Business
- NZ home sales creep up in March, still subdued Property
- NZ economy expands at fastest pace in two years Business
- New Zealand food prices fall in February Business
Nov. 24 (BusinessDesk) - Prime Minister John Key has intimated for the first time that the Treasury's half-year fiscal and economic update on Dec. 16 could change the forecast of a budget surplus to a small deficit, although he is optimistic that by the June 30 year-end a surplus will still be posted.
"Even if it was to show a small negative number, it doesn't mean that's what the number will be when the surplus, or deficit if that was to be the case, is finally determined for the 14/15 year," Key told his post-Cabinet press conference.
His comments follow last week's warning from Finance Minister Bill English that achieving the forecast surplus of $297 million in the update published before the Sept. 20 general election, itself a reduction from the $372 million surplus forecast in the budget in May, would be "a challenge."
"Historically, when you look at the HYEFU, there's been a lot of very wild fluctuations that have taken place," said Key. "We've had times when the HYEFU number has been billions of dollars out from the actual surplus or deficit at the end of the year. We think the numbers are looking OK."
Commenting on China's central bank cutting its official cash rate over the weekend to stimulate growth, Key said the Chinese president, Xi Xingping, remained "very confident of their growth rates" when they discussed the slowing Chinese economy during last week's three day state visit to New Zealand.
China was still targeting a doubling in average economic output per head of population within the next seven years, from around US$7,000 today to around US$14,000 by 2021.
"They need to grow at 6.5% per year and they think that's achievable on their modelling," Key said. While there was a slowdown occurring, it was more in the lending markets than among consumers, with Chinese government policy focusing on "not just the topline GDP (economic output) number, but quite focused on quality of living, quality of the environment, the rural-urban split and GDP per capita growth."
"He (President Xi) is very confident they are going to buy New Zealand products in a very prolific way."
Key was also confident that New Zealand free trade agreement with China would "over time" be "modernised" to the same standard as will apply in Australia's newly minted FTA, which includes less onerous caps on exports of dairy products to China than New Zealand's deal, the first to be signed by China with a developed economy, in 2008.
"Six years is a long time in FTA land," said Key. "It's quite a technical issue how most favoured nation status works in those FTA's. Now, I don't claim to understand exactly why this would or would not be covered, but I know that it's not covered because we need to go and deal with it."
(BusinessDesk)
News
Hilary Timmins' Award-Winning UK Documentary Series To Inspire NZ Students
29 Jun 2020 Education
Dream Catchers, produced and directed by Hilary Timmins, celebrates the success stories of more than thirty inspirational New... more
New Zealand reaffirms support for Flight MH17 judicial process
7 Mar 2020 News
Ahead of the start of the criminal trial in the Netherlands on 9 March, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has reaffirmed the need to... more
Business
NZ Government's Economic package to fight COVID-19
17 Mar 2020 Business News
The Coalition Government has launched the most significant peace-time economic plan in modern New Zealand history to cushion the... more
NZ Government announces aviation relief package
19 Mar 2020 Business News
Transport Minister Phil Twyford today outlined the first tranche of the $600 million aviation sector relief package announced earlier... more
Living
Diversity was Key at New Zealand Trade Tasting in London
6 Jun 2022 Food & Wine
New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Trade Tasting was recently held in London, on Wednesday 4 May, in Lindley Hall.
It was the first... more
Kiwi author stuns Behind the Butterfly Gate
12 Jan 2022 Arts
Hidden behind the Butterfly Gate is where the secret has been kept for 76 years...
New Zealand writer Merryn Corcoran’s... more
Property
Fairer rules for tenants and landlords
17 Nov 2019 Property
17 NOVEMBER 2019
The Government has delivered on its promise to the over one million New Zealanders who now rent to make it fairer... more
New Zealand Government will not implement a Capital Gains Tax
17 Apr 2019 Property
The Coalition Government will not proceed with the Tax Working Group’s recommendation for a capital gains tax, Jacinda Ardern... more
Migration
Boosting border security with electronic travel authority – now over 500,000 issued
19 Nov 2019 Migration
19 NOVEMBER 2019
We’ve improved border security with the NZeTA, New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority, which helps us to... more
Christchurch reinstated as refugee settlement location
18 Aug 2018 Migration
18 AUGUST 2018
HON IAIN LEES-GALLOWAY
The announcement that Christchurch can once again be a settlement location for refugees... more
Travel
Gallipoli Anzac Day services cancelled
19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism
The New Zealand and Australian Governments have announced this year’s joint Anzac Day services at Gallipoli will be cancelled... more
New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas
19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism
New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas
more
Sport
The Skipper's Diary: Sir Richard Hadlee honouring his father and NZ's Forty-Niners
27 Oct 2019 Cricket
NZNewsUK London Editor Charlotte Everett spoke to Sir Richard Hadlee about why he’s chosen to publish his father’s... more
PREVIEW: All Blacks v England semi-final
26 Oct 2019 Rugby
The two most convincing quarterfinals winners are set to square off in a semifinal showdown for the ages when the All Blacks meet old... more
Columns
Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade
11 Nov 2016 Opinion
Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade
First published on Werewolf
The ghastly likes of Marine Le Pen in France and Geert ... more
Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome
10 Nov 2016 Opinion
Column - Gordon Campbell
Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome
Well um.. on the bright side, there (probably)... more
Kiwi Success
Congratulations to Loder Cup winner
26 Sep 2018 People
25 SEPTEMBER 2018
The Loder Cup, one of New Zealand’s oldest conservation awards, has been awarded to Robert McGowan for 2018... more
Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO
16 Aug 2018 Appointments
16 AUGUST 2018Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO
HON JENNY SALESA
Associate Education Minister Jenny Salesa is... more
Recruitment
Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
14 Aug 2018 Recruitment
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
HON CHRIS HIPKINS
Prime Minister
The... more
Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
22 Aug 2018 Recruitment
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
HON CHRIS HIPKINS
Prime Minister
The... more