NZ Dollar Outlook: Kiwi may decline on weaker local data 15 Sep 2014
Related articles
- NZ More Interested in All Whites than All Blacks Sport
- NZ consumers grow more upbeat, may resume spending Business
- Knowles quits as CEO of KiwiBank Business
- NZ migration bolstered by British invasion Migration
- Sludge Report #192: The Naked Budget Columns
- Budget 2010 – Building the Recovery News
- NZ manufacturing activity reaches highest since 04 Business
- NZ dollar hits 22-month high vs euro Business
- Unemployment rate falls from 7.1 to 6 percent Recruitment
- OceanaGold finds new gold deposits at Fraser mine Business
NZ Dollar Outlook: Kiwi may decline on weaker local data, more bullish Fed
By Tina Morrison
Sept. 15 (BusinessDesk) - The New Zealand dollar may decline this week, weighed down by weaker local data and a more positive view of the greenback.
The kiwi will probably trade between 79.60 US cents and 83.40 cents this week, according to a BusinessDesk survey of 10 currency traders and strategists. Five pick the local currency to decline, three say it will probably remain relatively unchanged and two expect a gain. The kiwi was recently at 81.43 US cents.
New Zealand releases a slew of economic data ahead of this weekend's general election. Reports will probably show economic growth slowed in the second quarter while the current account improved and dairy prices remained weak in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve early Thursday morning amid speculation its policy-making committee may be more upbeat about the outlook for the world's largest economy and the potential for higher interest rates.
"We’ve been US dollar bulls for a long time, and we're hoping to see that view vindicated on Thursday morning," said Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Raiko Shareef. "We also have New Zealand second quarter GDP (gross domestic product) which is expected to considerably slow from the first quarter, and then the dairy auction to boot. If everything goes the right way, I can very easily see us below 80 US cents."
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, posted its ninth consecutive week of gains leading into the Federal Reserve meeting this week. That is the most weeks the index has gained consecutively since 1997 as some investors bet that improving US economic data may prompt the Fed to bring forward interest rate rises next year.
Still, some said the US dollar's recent strength left it at risk of a correction as traders "buy the rumour and sell the fact" should the Fed confirm it is edging towards a tightening bias, or on disappointment should the Fed fail to change its current stance.
The decision will be announced early Thursday morning Wellington time.
In New Zealand this week, data on Wednesday should show the annual current account deficit narrowed to $5.79 billion, or 2.5 percent of GDP, in the year through June, from a deficit of $6.3 billion or 2.8 percent, in the year through March, according to a Reuters poll.
Meanwhile, traders will be keenly watching the result of Fonterra Cooperative Group's latest fortnightly auction early Wednesday morning in anticipation that weak prices will continue.
GDP on Thursday is expected to show second quarter growth eased to a 0.6 percent pace from a 1 percent rate in the first quarter as a weaker primary sector weighed on agricultural-based manufacturing and exports.
New Zealand is scheduled to publish the latest figures on net migration for August on Friday, with the strong monthly gains expected to continue. The latest ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey for September is also due out Friday.
Some traders speculated the kiwi may strengthen heading into Saturday's general election on reduced political risk. The ruling National party goes into the last week of campaigning with enough support to govern with just ACT's David Seymour and Peter Dunne of United Future, according Radio New Zealand's 'poll of polls' published today. National's latest four-poll rolling average was 47.1 percent.
Elsewhere this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia will tomorrow release the minutes of its last meeting which will be eyed for an insight into its view on the economy, while the Bank of England will publish the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday.
(BusinessDesk)
News
Hilary Timmins' Award-Winning UK Documentary Series To Inspire NZ Students
29 Jun 2020 Education
Dream Catchers, produced and directed by Hilary Timmins, celebrates the success stories of more than thirty inspirational New... more
New Zealand reaffirms support for Flight MH17 judicial process
7 Mar 2020 News
Ahead of the start of the criminal trial in the Netherlands on 9 March, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has reaffirmed the need to... more
Business
NZ Government's Economic package to fight COVID-19
17 Mar 2020 Business News
The Coalition Government has launched the most significant peace-time economic plan in modern New Zealand history to cushion the... more
NZ Government announces aviation relief package
19 Mar 2020 Business News
Transport Minister Phil Twyford today outlined the first tranche of the $600 million aviation sector relief package announced earlier... more
Living
Diversity was Key at New Zealand Trade Tasting in London
6 Jun 2022 Food & Wine
New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Trade Tasting was recently held in London, on Wednesday 4 May, in Lindley Hall.
It was the first... more
Kiwi author stuns Behind the Butterfly Gate
12 Jan 2022 Arts
Hidden behind the Butterfly Gate is where the secret has been kept for 76 years...
New Zealand writer Merryn Corcoran’s... more
Property
Fairer rules for tenants and landlords
17 Nov 2019 Property
17 NOVEMBER 2019
The Government has delivered on its promise to the over one million New Zealanders who now rent to make it fairer... more
New Zealand Government will not implement a Capital Gains Tax
17 Apr 2019 Property
The Coalition Government will not proceed with the Tax Working Group’s recommendation for a capital gains tax, Jacinda Ardern... more
Migration
Boosting border security with electronic travel authority – now over 500,000 issued
19 Nov 2019 Migration
19 NOVEMBER 2019
We’ve improved border security with the NZeTA, New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority, which helps us to... more
Christchurch reinstated as refugee settlement location
18 Aug 2018 Migration
18 AUGUST 2018
HON IAIN LEES-GALLOWAY
The announcement that Christchurch can once again be a settlement location for refugees... more
Travel
Gallipoli Anzac Day services cancelled
19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism
The New Zealand and Australian Governments have announced this year’s joint Anzac Day services at Gallipoli will be cancelled... more
New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas
19 Mar 2020 Travel & Tourism
New Zealanders advised not to travel overseas
more
Sport
The Skipper's Diary: Sir Richard Hadlee honouring his father and NZ's Forty-Niners
27 Oct 2019 Cricket
NZNewsUK London Editor Charlotte Everett spoke to Sir Richard Hadlee about why he’s chosen to publish his father’s... more
PREVIEW: All Blacks v England semi-final
26 Oct 2019 Rugby
The two most convincing quarterfinals winners are set to square off in a semifinal showdown for the ages when the All Blacks meet old... more
Columns
Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade
11 Nov 2016 Opinion
Gordon Campbell on the Gareth Morgan crusade
First published on Werewolf
The ghastly likes of Marine Le Pen in France and Geert ... more
Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome
10 Nov 2016 Opinion
Column - Gordon Campbell
Gordon Campbell on the US election outcome
Well um.. on the bright side, there (probably)... more
Kiwi Success
Congratulations to Loder Cup winner
26 Sep 2018 People
25 SEPTEMBER 2018
The Loder Cup, one of New Zealand’s oldest conservation awards, has been awarded to Robert McGowan for 2018... more
Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO
16 Aug 2018 Appointments
16 AUGUST 2018Appointments to New Zealand National Commission for UNESCO
HON JENNY SALESA
Associate Education Minister Jenny Salesa is... more
Recruitment
Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
14 Aug 2018 Recruitment
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
HON CHRIS HIPKINS
Prime Minister
The... more
Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
22 Aug 2018 Recruitment
14 AUGUST 2018Historic pay equity settlement for education support workers
RT HON JACINDA ARDERN
HON CHRIS HIPKINS
Prime Minister
The... more