Kiwi biggest risk to govt forecasts for farm, forest exports 11 Jun 2012
- George Kerr to dilute stake in Pyne Gould share issue Business
- MARKET CLOSE: NZ shares follow Wall Street higher Business
- Amid Dirty Politics ‘Another Free Election Bites the Dust’? News
- NZ dollar little changed on the week after Fed Business
- Gareth Morgan: Election Day is Time to Refocus on Policies News
- Queenstown Airport heading for record 2014 Business
- Pacific Edge appoints McKinsey almumni Charles Sitch to board Kiwi Success
- NZ consumer confidence edges up in September from 10-month low Business
- Vocus declares FX Networks acquisition unconditional Business
- Goodman to spend $33.4M on developments, sells Carter Holt Harvey plant in Christchurch Business
NZ dollar is greatest risk to government forecasts for farm, forest export growth
June 11 (BusinessDesk) – The risk of the kiwi dollar remaining higher than expected over the next four years is the biggest risk to government forecasts for growth in the nation’s farm, forestry and seafood exports, a new government report says.
The trade-weighted index is forecast to fall 8.4 percent to 64.7 by March 2016, with weakness against the Australian dollar and yen offsetting gains versus the greenback, pound and euro, according to the Ministry for Primary Industries 2012 situation and outlook report. The TWI was recently at 70.43.
If the decline doesn’t eventuate, revenue from dairy, meat, wool and forestry could be 20 percent below the ministry’s baseline assumptions, the report says.
“In the shorter term, weak European and US economic performance, and lower interest rates relative to New Zealand drive the assumed strength of the New Zealand dollar,” the report says. “Longer term, New Zealand’s high and growing level of international indebtedness is expected to be constrained by limits to lenders’ appetite for risk, eventually reducing the strength of the New Zealand dollar.”
The ministry’s baseline forecast is for the TWI to strengthen over the next nine months to reach 72.2 by March 2013. It would gradually ease back to 64.7 by March 2016. The kiwi dollar would be around 80 US cents by March next year, up from its current level of 77.69 cents, before easing back to 69 cents by 2016.
Among the nation’s biggest primary exports, fruit is forecast to show the biggest gain in gross revenue between now and 2016, rising 33 percent to $3.1 billion. Dairy, the biggest contribution to the nation’s overseas shipments, is forecast to lift revenue by 27 percent to $12.5 billion.
Cattle revenue would rise 13 percent to $2.5 billion and sheepmeat by 9 percent to $2.45 billion. Wool is the disappointment, with gross revenue forecast to decline 16 percent to $513 million. Among other commodity items, revenue from vegetables would rise 10 percent to $1.1 billion.
The forecasts show agriculture’s contribution to gross domestic product would rise to $12.2 billion by 2016 from an estimated $9.78 billion in the year ended March 31.
For the current 12 months ending June 30, dairy export sales are expected to rise 5.6 percent to $13.9 billion as strong production more than makes up for weaker global commodity prices.
“More than any other New Zealand primary industry, the dairy industry has ben able to tap into strong economic growth in emerging market economies,” the ministry says.
Meat and wool export sales would rise 5.8 percent to $7.2 billion, reflecting higher meat volumes and increased wool prices.
New Zealand’s primary industries have benefitted from increased trade ties with emerging Asia, most notably China, where “investment and private consumption remained strong because of China’s solid corporate profits and rising household income,” the ministry says.
“The outlook for New Zealand’s dairy and forestry exports depends to a large extent on the Chinese economy maintaining its momentum,” it says.
That contrasts with the European Union, where there is a risk of further economic deterioration, and the US, where a weak housing market is weighing on demand for forest products. South East Asian countries and Latin America are expected to continue to have stronger growth, it said.
19 Sep 2014 Opinion
Gareth Morgan: Election Day is Time to Refocus on Policies Over the course of this election campaign there has been a lot of focus... more
19 Sep 2014 News
iPredict IPREDICT LTD 2014 NEW ZEALAND ELECTION DAILY UPDATE #12 www.ipredict.co.nz more
19 Sep 2014 Business News
Sept. 19 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand consumer confidence rose in September from a 10-month low, as households adjust to a more... more
19 Sep 2014 Business News
Sept. 19 (BusinessDesk) - Goodman Property Trust, which is selling assets to fund development, will spend $33.4 million on four ... more
15 Sep 2014 Environment
Sept. 15 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand visual marketing software company Shuttlerock has added Lady Gaga to its client list. While... more
3 Sep 2014 Property
Sept. 3 (BusinessDesk) - Auckland house sales fell for a third month in August and the number of listings remained muted in the... more
19 Sep 2014 Migration
NZ net migration at annual record in August on big inflow, fewer departures Sept. 19 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand’s... more
11 Sep 2014 Migration
Sept. 11 (BusinessDesk) - The Reserve Bank is keenly watching the impact New Zealand's decade-high net migration inflow is having on... more
11 Sep 2014 Travel & Tourism
Sept. 11 (BusinessDesk) - Plans for a $350 million runway extension for Wellington International Airport would provide the capital... more
19 Sep 2014 Rugby
Prince Harry Announced as Honorary President of England Rugby 2015 on One Year to Go to Rugby World Cup 2015 With One Year to Go to... more
19 Sep 2014 Netball
Netball New Zealand National Selectors have chosen 19 players in the Silver Ferns Squad for the 2014/2015 international Netball... more
19 Sep 2014 Opinion
Column - Gordon Campbell Gordon Campbell on a campaign that is ending as it began This election campaign is getting no less... more
19 Sep 2014 Opinion
Opinion - Martin Doyle Martin Doyle Cartoon: Election on a fork 'n' knife-edge more
10 Sep 2014 People
The New Zealand Psychological Society (NZPsS) -the largest membership association for psychologists in New Zealand, offers awards... more
11 Sep 2014 Recruitment
Paramedics in New Zealand jump at opportunity of a clinical career in London Paramedics hoping for a chance to work for the... more
22 Aug 2014 Recruitment
The loss of up to 100 jobs at Croxley stationery in Auckland is devastating news for their families and the local Avondale... more