Kiwi biggest risk to govt forecasts for farm, forest exports 11 Jun 2012
- 'Precarious' Solid Energy in banks' hands; govt eyes options Business
- MARKET CLOSE: NZX 50 Index rises to record; MRP, Meridian up Business
- TPP can't wait for Canada's October election, says Key Business
- Blis Tech boss Richardson resigns after nine years in charge Business
- NZ dollar little changed as Chinese industrial output slows Business
- Trilogy says first-half sales may rise 50%; shares soar Business
- FMA head of enforcement Belinda Moffat to leave in September Business
- Tainui to sell up to 50% of its Hamilton shopping centre Business
- NZ Dollar Outlook: Falling kiwi likely on dairy weakness Business
- Fletcher dumps Aussie distribution chief in ANZ merger Business
NZ dollar is greatest risk to government forecasts for farm, forest export growth
June 11 (BusinessDesk) – The risk of the kiwi dollar remaining higher than expected over the next four years is the biggest risk to government forecasts for growth in the nation’s farm, forestry and seafood exports, a new government report says.
The trade-weighted index is forecast to fall 8.4 percent to 64.7 by March 2016, with weakness against the Australian dollar and yen offsetting gains versus the greenback, pound and euro, according to the Ministry for Primary Industries 2012 situation and outlook report. The TWI was recently at 70.43.
If the decline doesn’t eventuate, revenue from dairy, meat, wool and forestry could be 20 percent below the ministry’s baseline assumptions, the report says.
“In the shorter term, weak European and US economic performance, and lower interest rates relative to New Zealand drive the assumed strength of the New Zealand dollar,” the report says. “Longer term, New Zealand’s high and growing level of international indebtedness is expected to be constrained by limits to lenders’ appetite for risk, eventually reducing the strength of the New Zealand dollar.”
The ministry’s baseline forecast is for the TWI to strengthen over the next nine months to reach 72.2 by March 2013. It would gradually ease back to 64.7 by March 2016. The kiwi dollar would be around 80 US cents by March next year, up from its current level of 77.69 cents, before easing back to 69 cents by 2016.
Among the nation’s biggest primary exports, fruit is forecast to show the biggest gain in gross revenue between now and 2016, rising 33 percent to $3.1 billion. Dairy, the biggest contribution to the nation’s overseas shipments, is forecast to lift revenue by 27 percent to $12.5 billion.
Cattle revenue would rise 13 percent to $2.5 billion and sheepmeat by 9 percent to $2.45 billion. Wool is the disappointment, with gross revenue forecast to decline 16 percent to $513 million. Among other commodity items, revenue from vegetables would rise 10 percent to $1.1 billion.
The forecasts show agriculture’s contribution to gross domestic product would rise to $12.2 billion by 2016 from an estimated $9.78 billion in the year ended March 31.
For the current 12 months ending June 30, dairy export sales are expected to rise 5.6 percent to $13.9 billion as strong production more than makes up for weaker global commodity prices.
“More than any other New Zealand primary industry, the dairy industry has ben able to tap into strong economic growth in emerging market economies,” the ministry says.
Meat and wool export sales would rise 5.8 percent to $7.2 billion, reflecting higher meat volumes and increased wool prices.
New Zealand’s primary industries have benefitted from increased trade ties with emerging Asia, most notably China, where “investment and private consumption remained strong because of China’s solid corporate profits and rising household income,” the ministry says.
“The outlook for New Zealand’s dairy and forestry exports depends to a large extent on the Chinese economy maintaining its momentum,” it says.
That contrasts with the European Union, where there is a risk of further economic deterioration, and the US, where a weak housing market is weighing on demand for forest products. South East Asian countries and Latin America are expected to continue to have stronger growth, it said.
31 Jul 2015 News
New Zealand Government Hon Steven Joyce Minister for Economic Development 31 July 2015 Joyce to visit the Philippines and Viet... more
31 Jul 2015 Business News
Article - BusinessDesk MARKET CLOSE: NZ stocks rise; Meridian, MRP up ahead of Tiwai Pt decision By Fiona Rotherham July 31 ... more
31 Jul 2015 Entertainment
New Zealand Government Hon Maggie BarryMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage 31 July 2015 Appointments to the New Zealand Film... more
31 Jul 2015 Property
New Zealand Government Hon Nikki Kaye Associate Minister of Education 31 July 2015 Site purchased for Pt... more
21 Jul 2015 Migration
NZ net migration reaches new annual record in June, swelled by Indian, Chinese students July 21 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand... more
23 Jul 2015 Travel & Tourism
Over $6 million from the Future Investment Fund will go towards expanding and modernising SmartGate at our borders to help manage ... more
15 Jul 2015 NZ Tourism
Minister welcomes Tourism Industry Association partnership A new partnership between the Department of Conservation and New ... more
31 Jul 2015 Motor Sport
KartSport World Champs Next for Euro Kart Round Winner Armstrong New Zealand has another World Karting Championship... more
31 Jul 2015 Column
Column - Gordon Campbell Gordon Campbell on Tim Groser missing in action on the TPP While rapid change is always possible in... more
23 Jul 2015 Opinion
The refusal by Minister Sam Lotu-Liga to hold Serco accountable for the company’s failings in prison management is bad... more
31 Jul 2015 People
New Zealand Government Hon Jo Goodhew Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector 31 July 2015 Winston Churchill Fellows ... more
31 Jul 2015 Recruitment
By Suze Metherell July 31 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand needs to significantly boost its efforts to protect vulnerable migrant... more
16 Jul 2015 Press Releases
Declan Clancy says economic turmoil unlikely to see Greek workers fleeing to NZ One World Resourcing’s Declan Clancy is not... more